It May Just Be the AFC
- 2 January 2007
A quick betting overview of the coming playoffs and Super Bowl XLI contenders.
Now that the playoffs are a reality - and a Super Bowl appearance no longer a distand dream, the number crunching has begun in earnest. Each of the twelve teams bring with them strengths, weaknesses, quirks, and paradoxes that can take a simple decision when it is time to pony up a few dollars and twist it into some convoluted anxiety filled quandary. Everybody has an angle on this and of course theirs is the next best thing since peanut butter.
As a fundamentalist (not to be mistaken for a religious zealot) in economic terms, I care more about what is vs. what could be when making decisions that could affect where I place my money. If I know that you have been a good risk for ten years, I will most likely continue placing my money with you vs. the next big thing. Now I understand that loyalties in sports are at a premium. You have been a diehard fan for twenty years, and know everything there is to know about your team since it was founded back before the automobile was invented. The problem with that however, is it often leads to finding trends and patterns in all sorts of facts that are really not there due to the emotional attachment. You know what I am talking about. Everyone knows the guy who will swear to you that team A has never lost a game to team B when it was raining on a Tuesday night in October while on the road, and a republican was in office.
There are also those that through the use of advance statistical regression models can come up with all sorts of scenarios as to why team A or B will win or lose. Getting sucked into these systems, good luck charms, voodoo or call it what you will, without a full understanding of them turns you into the student who is standing so close to the chalkboard that he/she cannot see the writing on the wall. Of course there is always another guy looking in through the window who has a clear view. Maybe it is time to take a few steps back, or join the guy peeping through the window for some perspective on this year's final trip towards Superbowl XLI.
Sometimes the picture isn't that obscured, fundamentally speaking of course. This year's playoffs have a rather AFC-centric feel to them. Why? Simply due to the fact (remember, what is vs. what could be) that the combined cross conference record of the twelve teams involved is 27-8 in the AFC's favor. In any league that is rather lopsided. Not a single NFC team that is in the playoffs has a winning record vs. the AFC. Even the renewed Monsters of the Midway out of Chicago are only just above sea level with victories over Buffalo and the Jets and losses to Miami and New England. I don't know about you, but when I see this kind of bias, I tend to err on the side of caution. Why try and outsmart history's repetitive nature? In cases like this it is so much easier to accept.
Another 'what is', is the fact that the combined record of the AFC playoff teams is a collective 70 - 26 vs. the NFC's 59 - 37. These are the kinds of things that I look for when protecting my money, and as a bettor that should always be your first concern. You always hear your friends and acquaintances brag about that huge bet they won, but how many times to you get the 411 on their streak of 5 terrible bets in a row, or the fact that the huge winning bet has put them back at +/- 0 for the year. Fundamentals may not be sexy, but they are practical, easy to understand and have served to keep my picks record over .700 for the past six years.
My Pro version of the Ross Rankings is an adaptation of what I have used to gauge the collegiate game since 1999. There is nothing magical about them. No super secret models and calculations; just solid fundamentals. After calculating 'what is' in regards to wins, losses, home and away records, division records, winning and losing trends, SOS, Key Injuries, Roster Depth, etc, the chalkboard tells me that Superbowl XLI will most likely be won by an AFC team.
| |
CONF.
|
W |
L
|
Rank'g |
Odds Reach Superbowl |
Odds Win Superbowl |
| San Diego |
AFC |
14 |
2 |
32.5950 |
1 in 3 |
1 in 5 |
| Indianapolis |
AFC |
12 |
4 |
26.3960 |
1 in 4 |
1 in 6 |
| Chicago |
NFC |
13 |
3 |
20.5780 |
1 in 3 |
1 in 7 |
| Baltimore |
AFC |
13 |
3 |
17.0880 |
1 in 6 |
1 in 9 |
| New England |
AFC |
12 |
4 |
13.5550 |
1 in 8 |
1 in 11 |
| Philadelphia |
NFC |
10 |
6 |
10.2650 |
1 in 5 |
1 in 15 |
| NY Jets |
AFC |
10 |
6 |
7.5887 |
1 in 13 |
1 in 20 |
| Dallas |
NFC |
9 |
7 |
7.4560 |
1 in 7 |
1 in 21 |
| New Orleans |
NFC |
10 |
6 |
6.7266 |
1 in 8 |
1 in 23 |
| Kansas City |
AFC |
9 |
7 |
4.5563 |
1 in 22 |
1 in 34 |
| NY Giants |
NFC |
8 |
8 |
4.4572 |
1 in 12 |
1 in 34 |
| Seattle |
NFC |
9 |
7 |
2.9733 |
1 in 18 |
1 in 52 |
