The Long Bet
- - 8 March 2007
| Well after picking Portland twice as a bet, I have been burned
twice. Now if I were the emotionally suspicious type, I might think that the
Trailblazers lost because I picked them. You know how it is. We all have a
friend, or in the case of ourselves a story of how they or we was convinced
that because they watched or attended a game, or picked team A to win or
lose, that the exact opposite of what was desired occurred. Well portfolio betting is a war vs. a battle, and the RR Hard Game Portfolio is off to a good start with two out of three winning tickets. Now winning isn't always enough. It is important that your wins are good wins and your losses are good losses. Good Losses? Absolutely. This goes back to my number one rule to protect your betting capital. If you are going to lose on money line bets, you prefer to lose Of course it doesn't always start out as smoothly as one would like. There are times when you could have a complete dive and lose half of your portfolio in one day. It isn't likely, but being prepared by never betting more than half of your portfolio at any given time can help weather such storms when they do hit.Tonight's late tip-off between Denver and Golden State is an interesting hard game. While the Nuggets appear to be in second place behind Utah in the Northwest, they are actually the weakest team in the division according to their RR. Now Golden State isn't much better, and if we were dependant solely on standings, their record is worse than Denver's. So why the low ranking for betting purposes? Denver hasn't shown any consistency over the season. They are .500 at home while two of the three teams below them are 5 games above. They are next to last in conference record. They have picked up the pace the past month, but lack of consistency has kept them from moving into any real opportunity to solidify a playoff spot. Sure the standings have them sitting at the number 7 spot, but the RR based on fundamental trends tells me that if things don't change for the Nuggets soon, they will slide out of contention as other teams like Seattle, Sacramento, New Orl/OKC and Minnesota fight for those precious last two spots. Score factor favors Golden State by 3.5. With home court making it stronger. Both averaged high, but 106.9 home game average over the last five is insane. The Warriors can score, and Denver doesn't possess the stoppers to keep them from doing so. RR differential also favors the home team here at .3693 and that is almost .9 away from visiting team to be favored. This game is for Golden State to win, which is why I pick Warriors to win. Current ML is -310 for Golden State to win, which means $100 bet gives $132.26 This Friday has three exciting hard game bets which we will take portfolio positions on. Memphis @ Atlanta Ross Rankings Hard game Portfolio *all bet positions taken are strictly virtually based. No real money transactions have occurred. This mock portfolio is for educational purposes in helping money line bettors with portfolio based strategies. |
Ross Rankings
updated March 3rd, 2007 15:32 MST
| Eastern Conference Standings | ||||||
| W | L | L10 | RRANK | |||
| Detroit | 37 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 1.6883 | |
| Chicago | 35 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 1.3100 | |
| Washington | 34 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1.2200 | |
| Cleveland | 35 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1.0300 | |
| Toronto | 32 | 29 | 5 | 5 | 0.6300 | |
| Miami | 30 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 0.5500 | |
| New Jersey | 28 | 33 | 4 | 6 | 0.1167 | ↑ |
| Orlando | 29 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 0.0743 | ↑ |
| Indiana | 29 | 30 | 3 | 7 | -0.1557 | ↓ |
| New York | 28 | 34 | 5 | 5 | -0.2250 | |
| Philadelphia | 22 | 38 | 5 | 5 | -0.5850 | |
| Milwaukee | 22 | 39 | 3 | 7 | -1.1507 | |
| Boston | 17 | 42 | 5 | 5 | -1.2650 | |
| Charlotte | 22 | 39 | 4 | 6 | -1.5233 | |
| Atlanta | 22 | 39 | 2 | 8 | -1.5825 | |
| Western Conference Standings | ||||||
| W | L | L10 | RRANK | |||
| Dallas | 51 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 659.1100 | |
| San Antonio | 43 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 12.7050 | |
| Phoenix | 46 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 2.7133 | |
| Utah | 41 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 2.2450 | |
| Houston | 36 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 1.1317 | |
| LA Lakers | 33 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 0.7843 | |
| LA Clippers | 29 | 31 | 4 | 6 | 0.0467 | |
| Sacramento | 28 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 0.0300 | ↑ |
| Minnesota | 27 | 33 | 4 | 6 | -0.1533 | ↑ |
| New Orl/OKC | 28 | 33 | 4 | 6 | -0.1933 | ↓ |
| Golden State | 27 | 35 | 3 | 7 | -0.3557 | |
| Portland | 25 | 36 | 4 | 6 | -0.4833 | |
| Seattle | 25 | 35 | 7 | 3 | -0.5117 | |
| Denver | 29 | 29 | 5 | 5 | -0.7250 | |
| Memphis | 15 | 46 | 2 | 8 | -2.3475 | |
