Football Gambling - Playoffs
We are closing in on our trip to Miami, Super Bowl is the football gambling event of the year, and there are still lots of scenarios to dig through to ensure we know every possible thing there is before heading to the window with cold hard cash. There is considerable worth to be found at the skill positions, but their visibility tends to overshadow where the true value can be found, which is in the trenches. As the line play goes, so goes the teams success or failure. No all-star QB, Wideout or RB can compensate for dismal performance at the line. No Pro Bowl Safety or CB can handle the pressure of containing five or six weapons if the Defensive front is worse than pedestrian.
It all starts up front. When making your selections on game day, make sure you have studied the Offensive and Defensive lines. What kind of depth do the teams have at these positions? How cohesive are they as a unit? Is there one outstanding player surrounded by a bunch of overweight slowpokes, or is their play representative of a mammoth sized wall? Match-ups are also important to consider. Does the D-line struggle with pass blocking, but is solid in run situations? Can the O-line create holes and maintain blocks to bust their RB’s and slot receivers loose? Each team brings with it a unique composition of line players. Understanding which of these are superior, means understanding which teams will have an easier time putting points on the board as well as keeping the opponent from scoring.
Football Gambling - PLAYOFFS / SUPER BOWL - match up 1.
Indianapolis vs. New England
Colt Hogs up front are clearly Pass Blockers first. Rushing is almost an afterthought. Their squad is fairly healthy with only Diem nursing a shoulder injury. He is expected to play in the Championship game. Since the Patriots strong rush defense will not be a factor in stopping Peyton Manning and his cadre of receiving options, The key match-up here is passing defense vs. passing offense. Now I am not going to bore you with a flurry of stats, but it is clear that New England possesses a stout obstacle for the Colts to air it out, but is that due more to excellent coverage or pressure on the QB. Only four teams had fewer sacks than New England this year. One way to look at this is, how much time does Manning need to get the ball to his receivers, and how accurate does he become if he has less time to throw? This is vital since the number of sacks has a strong correlation to the number of interceptions, and given that the Patriots are fourth in picks this year, it isn’t strange to think that the Colt offense line will be tested.
New England is also equipped with a solid passing front. While not as solid as the Colts, their pass blocking is still in the upper echelons of the league. Everyone is healthy (a couple were sniffing a bit with a flu-bug) and will provide ample protection for Brady. Tom will have plenty of time to throw since the Colt front seven are not as adept at getting at the QB. Indianapolis however can neutralize their less than stellar pass rush with outstanding coverage. There is a reason why they possess the second best pass defense in the league. Unlike the Colts, the Patriots can run the ball, and their offensive line is more than capable of opening up holes to spring their backfield loose. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, they rate last in the league at stopping the run. Their defensive front struggles at plugging the holes and breaking down the tackle in traffic. While they looked all world shutting down the Ravens run game last week, Baltimore isn’t known for their offense especially out of the backfield. So even though the odds say Indianapolis has a better chance of making it to Miami, the trenches tell us a different story. This one is a tough bet to make given the circumstances.
Football Gambling - PLAYOFFS / SUPER BOWL - match up 2.
Chicago vs. New Orleans
The Saints love to fly, and airing it out is something they do so well, that they lead the league in passing offense. Their pass blocking has allowed Brees plenty of time to get the ball to his athletic receiving corp. The only caveat here is that they have not been tested by some of the best pass rushes in the league with exception to Carolina, which they lost twice to this season. Chicago however likes to get at the QB, and should provide a stiff challenge. They are fairly healthy with DE Adewale Ogunleye a bit gimpy with a thigh injury. The Saints run game is actually rather average. It is hard to imagine this with weapons like Deuce and Reggie in the backfield. Again the trenches are the key to how well these two can do. The line looked all world vs. the Eagles last week, but given how poor Philadelphia has handled the run all season, this isn’t something to get to excited about. New Orleans will most likely be forced to stick with their forte and pass the ball since The Bears staunch defensive front knows how to stifle the run. Holes to run through will be at a premium and Chicago’s LB corp have nasty speed to contain Bush’s preferred outside running.
New Orleans will force the Bears to run the ball. Grossman actually has solid linemen to protect him, however they cannot help their QB to throw the ball better. While the trenches are key to freeing their skill players to do their thing, imagine what Grossman would look like if he were throwing for the Falcons or Titans. Running the ball is something Chicago can do. Their last five games have seen a stark improvement in opening up the line for their backfield. This game will be decided by defense, and the fact that Chicago leads the league in forced fumbles the edge has to go to the Bears.
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